Iraq: Post Surge, Pre-withdrawal

Linda Robinson has written a telling article about the current situation in Iraq and the difficulties of the upcoming months. Her analysis seems to fit well with what I have been reading from embedded reporters, military interviews and some Iraqi blogs. The surge is working in a limited way, but "what next?" is the question weighing on everyone's minds.

"during a three-week trip to Iraq in late August and early September this year, I found that Iraq has pulled back from the brink of all-out civil war. The death toll among Iraqi civilians had fallen to 1,600 in August, according to figures cited by U.S. Gen. David Petraeus. The violence is still far above the levels of 2004 and 2005, but the hoped-for breathing space has been created. Platoons of U.S. and Iraqi soldiers stood guard along the fault lines between Baghdad’s Shiite and Sunni neighborhoods, thwarting the worst sectarian violence. After aggressive U.S. military operations this spring, al Qaeda in Iraq is playing defense, and Shiite extremists have been debilitated. Nuri al-Maliki’s government has grudgingly begun to hire Sunni volunteers into the police force. And, in a barely publicized development, it has decided to rehire 5,000 former officers of Saddam’s military and give 40,000 others civilian jobs or full pensions.

To be sure, the level of violence in Iraq is still unacceptably high, and these real but fragile gains are easily reversible. Most importantly, the so-called surge has yet to enable the Iraqi government to reach a national agreement on sharing power and resources among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. That’s no surprise: It was the September reporting deadline that created an unrealistic expectation that reconciliation and all the key legislation would be in place by then. Still, even with most political benchmarks largely unmet, General Petraeus seems to have bought himself more time on what he calls the “Washington clock.”

As many have stated, eloquently or not, the important focus should be how we leave Iraq, not why or even necessarily when. Letting domestic politics force a hasty pullout is just as dangerous as letting bull-headed stubborness keep our troops abroad while they merely act as lighting rods. Patience and farsightedness are key, and I pray we have enough of both.