Though no union of love and happiness, the new political triangle has powerful possibilities for either a potential meltdown or greater long term stability. Or both. Before the outcry, hear me out. The political "stability" of a weak Maliki government isn't really getting anything done. It is however ensuring that working out a reasonable oil law and an appropriate level of local vs central control is oh-so-difficult. The failure of the present government will open the door to chaos and it would likely force the major Shi'ite parties to adjust their stances. If any of the smaller Shi'ite parties join the coalition (on this likelihood I am completely uninformed) it would really shake some boats. In the face of such opposition a complete degradation of the political situation could occur down sectarian lines, or more postively, a softening could occur and many of the desires of the minority groups would be met through the political process, thus legitimizing it in the eyes of many who currently feel abandoned or even threatened by the central government. The hard line Maliki's government has held toward both Kurdish (oil and Kirkuk) and Sunni (reconciliation and Al-Hashemi's "national political project") desires has seemingly pushed the groups into each other's arms. What that holds will be integral to Iraq's future.Have the Kurds abandoned their alliance which was based on the concept of the Shiite and Kurdish suffering during Saddam Hussain's era? Will the new Talabani-Barazani-Hashemi alliance overthrow Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki's government? Will former Prime Minister Iyad Alawi join the new Kurdish Sunni alliance? (The picture is thanks to SotalIraq and Abu Ardvark)
More thoughts the new coalition can be found here at Abu Aardvark's blog and here at Badger's Missing Links -- it's a regular zoo out there.
No comments:
Post a Comment