Is it all politics? Usually.

This incisive commentary on the seemingly quickly degrading Basra situation is a very valuable read. It examines the (cross cutting) motivations of the major players in Iraq and in Basra in particular. Some things are relatively clear. The U.S. wants the Iraqi government to succeed in this venture: an embarrassing defeat is the worst thing that could happen, while success will weaken Sadr and his followers. The best case scenario for the government and the US would be if Sadr accepts the weakening, abandons his fighters in Basra and the situation returns to the political table with a weakened Sadrist bloc, but without Maliki being excessively strengthened. This will hopefully show the Iraq forces as worth reckoning against and worth counting on, provide a stepping stone to breaking the militia control of Basra, and will not strengthen the SCIRI/Dawa'a groups to the point of being able to impose decisions without tradeoffs.

The most likely scenarios are less rosy.

The questions of whether MNF forces will become more involved (past air and blockade support) and how Fadhila, an anti-federalist party, will weigh in on the battle between to pro-federalist parties will be very interesting.

Definitely swing by Missing Links for a more indepth look at how the Arab press is taking the developments. He called this one.