Zawahiri's Videos

The July 11^th Video - Pakistan

Concerning Pakistan’s military response toward the militants inside Islamabad's Lal Masjid (Red Mosque), Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's “The Aggression Against Lal Masjid” video was released to Jihadist forums yesterday, July 11, 2007. In it he says that: “Your salvation is only through Jihad, so you must now back the Mujahideen in Afghanistan with your persons, wealth, opinion and expertise, because the Jihad in Afghanistan is the door to salvation for Afghanistan, Pakistan and the rest of the region.” The SITE Institute analysis of the issue states that Zawahiri is using the event to foment anger amongst Pakistani Muslims towards Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. This part is not surprising. The next part is. Zawahiri encourages Pakistani jihadist to "participate in jihad, not in Pakistan, but in Afghanistan." The analysis continues by saying that this latest video merely complements his words in his previous speech, “Malicious Britain and its Indian Slaves.” In it he "makes the same recommendation that challenging Musharraf is fruitless, but empowering the Taliban may mete success."

It would be very easy to take such statements for more than they are worth, but it also easy to write them off an mere propaganda. The trick is finding that middle ground of laying out possibilities. What does the Al-Qaeda's number 2 encouraging energy being focused in Afghanistan instead of Pakistan signify? An optimist could throw out the possibility that Al-Qaeda and its Taliban allies are having real difficulties on the home front. Only a few months ago I was reading about how insurgent groups in Iraq were turning down foreign insurgents because they had more than enough. They were supposedly more 'needed' elsewhere. That seems to be far from the truth today in either Afghanistan or Iraq. If that were the case now would seem to be a perfect time for the Pakistani jihadists to start throwing monkey wrenches at home. Musharraf seems weak, his firing of Pakistan's Supreme Court Justice earned him many enemies among the ordinary citizenry, Taliban and Al-Qaeda have the upper hand in the NW Frontier provinces, but he calls for them in Afghanistan. A possibility is that Al-Qaeda doesn't want to risk the good thing it has going in Pakistan. The government crack down by our good friend and ally Musharraf has so far been weak to conciliatory. After the brothers from the Red Mosque issued a fatwa saying that soldiers who died fighting militants in the NWF provinces could not get a Muslim burial and the religious leadership of the country jumped on the bandwagon forces were withdrawn from many of the contested areas and Al-Qaeda was effectively given a free hand in the area. When you have an unmolested staging area for support of Afghanistan why risk losing it for the possibility of starting a second front which might be harder to control from a jihadist standpoint. (Pakistan has a slightly larger Shi'a other minority presence (80/20 as opposed to 84/15 in Afghanistan), but doesn't seem to be enough of a reason to avoid spreading the jihad there, but it does have much stronger support for both secular and military options as opposed to religious fundamentalism. Musharraf seems willing to stand down and only intervened decisively with the Red Mosque militants after significant prodding from the US.

The July 4^th Video - Iraq

In Zawahiri’s July 4^th address he begins by saying that: “the stage preceding victory is normally, in the history of nations, the stage in which there is most seen an increase in conspiracies, plots, and inciting of discord in an attempt by the enemy, who has seen his defeat approach, to push back and delay the defeat as much as he can.” The setbacks the mujahideen are undergoing in Iraq are not real, or at the least not of any consequence. The fitnah between insurgent groups (‘nationalist’ vs. al-qaeda) have merely been sown by the enemy they are not fundamental or deep-seated. He continues by emphasizing the critical nature of unity and even put forth Zarqawi as “a forerunner in this field.” He attacks the Saudi religious leaders for declaring fatwas stating that Jihad in Iraq is not obligatory and for even forbidding the Saudi youth from going to Iraq. They have done all of this despite the commanders of the mujahideen urging the youth “day and night to hurry to Afghanistan and Iraq.” Zawahiri leaves Iraq for a while and complains about the inconsistent treatment the Islamic State in Iraq is receiving in comparison to Hamas and Fatah. He cites all the negative things that Hamas has done and then asks why they aren’t receiving condemnation? (It’s just not fair!) Despite all of this he pushes onto a buoyant note. Everything is going well he continues. The insurgent groups ARE unifying. “The good news is continuing, [but] some of the groups prefer that their unifying not be announced right now,” but we will be announcing some that have joined us. Soon. Just you wait. PINR's July 11th Terrorism intelligence report breaks down this supposed expression of strength. "If al Qaeda's ideology had momentum, if the Ummah were rising up in response to al Qaeda's call, there would be no reason to hide the affiliation. If, on the other hand, the United States and its allies have begun systematically dismantling al Qaeda's local nodes, then it makes sense that some of the weaker groups would want to avoid bringing that kind of pressure on themselves."

Zawahiri admits that the mujahideen have made mistakes, but he doesn’t see any benefit in “making public the problems of the Mujahideen for all to see.” In fact that just might do “more harm than good.” The final danger he mentions in the video is merely another explanation for the negative things that are coming out of Iraq attributed to Al-Qaeda. The agents of the Crusaders, “who shed crocodile tears” for the rights of the Iraqi people, are really “scholars of beggary” who sell their religion for bribes from the west. This is basically pushing the proposition that the internal voices of opposition in Iraq are being bought about through false Muslims in Egypt and the peninsula trying to strengthen the ‘Crusader’ program by fomenting discord and lies. Everything you’ve heard about our atrocities in Iraq is not true, we are nice guys. The Muslim religious leaders who disagree with our ideology or methods are unIslamic and shouldn't be listened to. We’ve made some mistakes but cut us some slack, we’re only a few more suicide bombers from victory (Allah willing of course).

Overall the videos don't have the air of desperation, but they do seem distressed. Appealing to the youth of Saudi Arabia to go over the fatwas of their religious leadership wasn’t necessary when the leadership themselves were encouraging them to go. And Al-Qaeda isn’t even putting forth the pretense that they have more than enough fighters in Iraq and that they would be better sent elsewhere. They are definitely facing difficulties. While not definitive that Al-Qaeda is on the defensive, the video does seem to point to it no longer being as sure of itself on offense. And that is something.